NDIS growth frozen and 160,000 participants expected to lose access: what the April 2026 reforms mean
The federal government announced a package of NDIS reforms in April 2026. Health Minister Mark Butler said annual scheme growth will be capped at 2%, below the current inflation rate.
The number of participants is expected to fall from around 700,000 to 540,000 by 2030. That means roughly 160,000 people who currently receive support through the NDIS could lose access.
Disability advocates and peak bodies have raised concerns about what the changes will mean for people who currently depend on the scheme.
Eligibility: from diagnosis to functional capacity
The most significant change in the reform package is to eligibility. The NDIS currently uses a diagnosis-based model: if you have a qualifying condition, you can apply for access.
The government is moving to a functional capacity model, which assesses what someone can and cannot do in daily life, regardless of diagnosis. The NDIA has not yet published the final criteria for what will qualify under the new test.
People who currently qualify under a diagnosis may not qualify under the new assessment. Participants with plan reviews scheduled in the next 12 months should get independent advice before their meeting.
Budget cuts from October 2026
From 1 October 2026, several budget categories will be reduced.
Social and community participation budgets will be cut by an average of 16%. These funds cover group activities, community access programs, and social support.
Capacity building budgets, which cover psychology, behaviour support, and therapy, will also fall. The government has confirmed that essential care and daily living supports will not be affected.
Plan management and support coordination funding is being cut by 30%. For participants who rely on a plan manager or support coordinator to navigate their supports, this may affect the level of service they can access.
Average plan values
The government projects average NDIS plan values will fall from approximately $31,000 to $26,000 over the next two years. For participants with complex needs, the gap between scheme funding and full cost of support may widen.
Restrictions on how funding can be used
The government is also changing how some participants can manage their funding. Some support categories may move away from self-managed and plan-managed options, giving participants less flexibility in how they allocate funds.
Details on which categories are affected and how the changes will work in practice have not yet been fully released.
State government contributions
Some of the reforms depend on state and territory governments increasing their own disability and community support spending. If states do not increase contributions, the gaps left by NDIS funding reductions may not be covered at the local level.
There is currently no confirmed commitment from all state governments to fill that role.
The fraud question
The government has cited fraud and inappropriate spending as part of the rationale for the reforms. The Fraud Fusion Taskforce, a joint body established to investigate misuse of NDIS funds, has prosecuted a number of providers.
Disability advocates have questioned the framing. They argue the evidence of widespread fraud among participants is limited, and that using it to justify broad budget cuts risks stigmatising the people the scheme is meant to support.
What to do now
If you have a plan review or reassessment coming up, get independent advice before the meeting. Several disability advocacy organisations offer free support to participants navigating this process.
The NDIA has a summary of the reforms at ndis.gov.au/about-us/improving-ndis. The government’s reform page is at health.gov.au/securingtheNDIS.