NDIS under strain as founder warns of “train-wreck” scenario

When the National Disability Insurance Scheme (NDIS) was created, it was intended to give people with disability real choice, control and access to quality supports. Now, one of its original architects says the system he helped build is on the brink of collapse.

Dr Martin Laverty, who played a key role in designing the NDIS and now leads a major disability provider, told the ABC that the scheme has become a “train wreck”. He says the market-driven model underpinning the system is no longer working, and the consequences are already hitting people with disability.

A market in crisis

According to Dr Laverty, the NDIS is suffering a serious market failure. Years of rising costs, static pricing and thin margins have pushed many not-for-profit providers into the red. Some are withdrawing from the scheme altogether; others are operating at a loss simply to keep essential supports alive.

The reality is blunt: the prices many providers are expected to deliver services at don’t match the real cost of delivering them. Wages, compliance requirements, travel distances and workforce shortages all keep rising. Meanwhile, the NDIS price controls haven’t kept up. Providers supporting people with complex needs or delivering services in regional and remote communities are under the most pressure.

Participants paying the price

When providers scale back or shut their doors, it is participants who bear the brunt. Supports are disrupted. Choices narrow. Wait times blow out. In some regional areas, the market is already so thin that “choice and control” is something that exists more on paper than in practice.

Dr Laverty warns that unless the system is recalibrated, people with disability risk losing access to the basic supports the scheme was created to guarantee.

What needs to change

Experts and providers are increasingly aligned on the urgent fixes needed to salvage the scheme:

• Realistic pricing that reflects the true cost of disability support work.

• Rebuilding fragile markets, especially in remote and high-complexity areas, where competition alone will never deliver reliable services.

• Better coordination with health, education and community systems, so the NDIS isn’t forced to fill every gap in the broader social safety net.

• Long-term stability for providers, because the scheme collapses without a workforce and service network strong enough to carry it.

Dr Laverty’s message is blunt: if nothing changes, the NDIS risks failing the very people it was designed for.

Why it matters

The NDIS remains one of Australia’s largest and most important social reforms. But its future depends on a functioning service marketplace – one in which providers can survive and participants can rely on continuity of care.

What’s at stake now is not just the financial sustainability of the scheme, but people’s independence, dignity and basic access to support.